Context: Read the previous brief on this event.
President Paul Biya signed the circular setting the preparation of the 2027 state budget on 12 October 2026. The circular asks the government to refund value added tax credits to companies within the deadlines set by the tax code, so that their cash flow is preserved.
The 2027-2029 economic and budget programming document puts the refund envelope at 84 billion XAF, unchanged from 2026. The Treasury refunded 11.1 billion XAF of VAT credits between January and March 2026, against 20.4 billion XAF in the same period of 2025, a fall of 45.7 percent. That first-quarter figure was 13.2 percent of the 2026 envelope. The state refunded 49 billion XAF in 2025, against 84 billion XAF provided in the amended finance law for that year.
Under the tax code in force in 2026, exporters that meet the conditions must be refunded within two months of filing a claim, and some other categories within three months. The circular names no new payment mechanism and sets no deadline for the refunds. The 84 billion XAF figure still has to be confirmed by the 2027 finance law.
The brief of 15 October 2026 said the decision that mattered was the convocation of the electoral body, and that the indicators to watch were a convocation decree, an electoral calendar and the treatment of electoral spending in the 2026 execution reports. None of the three has been published. The circular of 12 October 2026 sets the drafting calendar for the 2027 budget without naming an election date.