Developing
Context: Read the previous brief on this event.
President Paul Biya signed a circular on 12 October 2026 instructing the government to draft the 2027 budget on a deficit of 2.7% of GDP, gifts included. The circular sets the deficit above the 1.5% floor in the CEMAC convergence rules, and above the -2.3% reference balance in the finance ministry's 2027-2029 programming document published in July 2026. The brief of 28 October 2026 read the circular as a drafting calendar that kept concessional borrowing as the priority for 2027 and reserved non-concessional loans for projects with sufficient returns. It named the convocation of the electoral body as the decision that mattered, with three indicators: a convocation decree, an electoral calendar and the treatment of electoral spending in the 2026 execution reports. None of the three has been published.
Finance Minister Louis-Paul Motaze told the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank that Cameroon has not formally asked to open negotiations on a new programme. "We are waiting for their reaction to start discussions," he said, without giving a timetable. He had argued for a new programme at a cabinet meeting on 30 October 2025, after the previous one expired in July 2025, and the file was to go to Biya for arbitration. CEMAC heads of state urged members to negotiate new programmes at a summit in Brazzaville on 22 January 2026, and finance ministers repeated the call in Paris on 17 March 2026. Motaze said Cameroon accounts for about 46% of CEMAC GDP. "What would CEMAC's programme be if Cameroon were not part of it?" he asked.
The finance ministry's 2027-2029 document projects 300 billion FCFA in budget support for 2027, conditional on a new IMF programme. That is about 9.5% of the state's 3,161.5 billion FCFA in financing needs for 2027. The document does not say how much would come from the IMF and how much from other partners. It names the absence of an agreement as a risk to medium-term fiscal sustainability. Motaze cited higher oil prices that raised the cost of fuel subsidies, which the government has kept to protect household purchasing power. "Given people's purchasing power, we estimated the budget could still support this price," he said. He said Cameroon cannot forgo support from the IMF, the World Bank, France and the African Development Bank. "The answer of a finance minister is no, because I know what it costs us," he said of refusing the funds. He said IMF conditions are met and public debt is below 45% of GDP. The programming document puts debt at 44.7% of GDP at the end of March 2026 and projects 50% in 2027. The IMF board completed the eighth and final review of the previous programme in July 2025 with waivers for missed budget criteria, and its services classified Cameroon as at high risk of debt distress after a post-financing assessment in September 2026.
The 2027 finance law, which parliament is to vote in 2027, will show whether the 2.7% deficit target survives the CEMAC reference balance and the conditions of any new programme. The date of the formal request for negotiations, and the size and terms of the 300 billion FCFA, remain open.